Probability: infinity and beyond

According to rumors at the New York Times and CNN/Money, the possibility of Steve Jobs selling Pixar to Disney (for "the right price") is being floated around. Since CEO Jobs owns 50% of the company's shares, any decision he makes would have a heavy influence on what happens. This has gotten animation buffs and CGI geeks all a-twitter, worried that Pixar would be destroyed by a sale to Disney (the company that brought you quality films like Home on the Range, Brother Bear, and more cheapquels than legally allowed).

Frankly, I can't see this happening for one big reason: Steve Jobs' ego.

Quite frankly, this is one instance where being an egomanic is a good thing. While he isn't as much of a hands-on CEO at Pixar as he is at Apple, Jobs has unarguably been a major influence on the studio; my understanding is that he largely focuses on the "business" end of the company, leaving the creative geniuses free to focus on their craft. While John Lasseter is (rightly) credited as the artistic lead at Pixar, Pixar is also seen as Steve Jobs' baby, the guy who provides the nurturing Pixar hothouse for the artists' works to come to full bloom.

Which is not to say that a Pixar sale to Disney is entirely out of the question. What I can see happening is a situation where Pixar becomes a fully-owned subsidiary of Disney, but the deal includes unbreakable, iron-clad guarantees to ensure that Pixar can continue to operate with the full creative autonomy they have now. Jobs' ego won't allow him to sell Pixar if it ends up churning out fast-buck CGI films (we already have Dreamworks for that); but securing a privileged position for Pixar -- one that will get lauded as preserving the quality and integrity of the studio -- that's something that Steve Jobs can be proud of. I can't imagine that he's doing anything solely for the money; at this point, it's all about his reputation, about going down in history as someone who made a dent in the universe.

Where would Jobs be if such a deal goes through? I imagine he'd still have some sort of influence on Pixar, just to keep his hand in and to prevent it from sliding into ineptitude (when asked about his return to Apple Computer, Jobs allegedly said, "I sold this company to idiots once; I won't let it happen again."). He might not be CEO, but he'd make sure he can still throw his weight around.

Steve Jobs selling Pixar to Disney? Maybe.
Steve Jobs taking the money and run, tossing Pixar to the gutter in the process? Not a chance.