Iran by the numbers

(Or, Deja Vu Iraq 2002)

I suppose it's inevitable -- since President Bush's ratings have been sinking faster than the Titanic (capped off with veep Cheney getting booed by a stadium full of critics this week), it's time to beat the war drums and rally some support for El Presidente.

But while the usual suspects begin trying to scare us with bogeymen of Iranian nukes bombarding our cities -- which would make a convenient excuse for some "pre-emptive" bombing of our own -- let's remember that the threat is not half as scary as the chickenhawks are claiming.

Sure, we could point to the experts trying to get heard over the right-wing noise machine that Iran is -- under ideal circumstances -- at least 10 years away from getting a nuclear weapon, but let's just run this by the numbers:

• This week, Iran announced (crowed?) that it managed to enrich uranium to 3.5%.
  
• To produce a nuclear bomb, you need at least 80% enrichment -- though most weapon-grade uranium goes up to 90%.
• Iran's announcement also said that they are starting to run 164 centrifuges -- which is down slightly from their original plans of 180.
• Also note that there's no evidence that these centrifuges are running continuously, but were probably run for a short test. To run the centrifuges continuously would require months of continuous testing, which Iran hasn't done.
• To get serious stockpiles of weapons-grade uranum, you'd need 18,000-20,000 centrifuges, all cascading with each other, running continuously.

Clip 'n save, kids!

Take a deep breath, relax, and keep these numbers in mind the next time you hear a breathless news report about Iran "going nuclear." At the present time, the only nukes Iran can produce are glow-in-the-dark Mickey Mouse watches, and they might be able to have a nuclear weapon inside of a decade if (a) they actively expand their efforts now, and (b) nothing goes wrong.

Even the warmongers are aware of these unimpressive numbers, though they try their best to hide this from the public. Check out this quote from British Ambassador Emyr Jones Parry:

"If you can do 164 [centrifuges], you probably do many more. That means you have the potential to do full-scale enrichment. If you can do enrichment up to 7 percent, you can do 80 percent. If you can do 80 percent, you can produce a bomb."

Not only does Mr. Parry conveniently ignore any discussion of how long it'd take for Iran to do any of this stuff, but he also shamelessly peppers his doggerel with weasel words like "probably" and "potential". For that alone, he deserves to get flogged with a wet spaghetti noodle in my book.

Frankly, anyone who thinks this is a grave and gathering threat -- especially the morons claiming Iran can produce a nuclear bomb in 16 days -- are the folks who still believe Iraq's "sand toilet" trailers were mobile WMD biolabs (not unless Saddam eats a really bad plate of falafels, buddy).

But if there's a chance that playing up the Iranian Nuclear Menace will help turn around those sagging ratings -- and make a perfect excuse to go to war -- who knows? This Administration is certainly crazy enough to do it.

And boy, it's a really sad state of affairs when you can't trust your leaders to not take the batshit-insane option when other alternatives are readily available...